Earnings, Financial Position and Net Worth

In the spring of 2010, the world economy continued its recovery, indicating that the global financial and economic crisis may have gradually been overcome. As early as mid-2009, industrial production, first and foremost global trade, was recording significant growth. The pace of the expansion, however, varied greatly depending on the geographical region: Whereas growth was exceptionally high, especially in the Asian emerging markets, production capacity utilization remained low in the industrial nations. It became evident that the upswing had not yet gained a firm foothold here and that it was still being carried to a great extent by governmental support measures. Therefore, the Study Group of German Institutes of Economic Research predicts only moderate growth in the real global gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.9 % in 2010, which is likely to remain considerably below the growth rates recorded prior to the crisis.

In the winter half-year, the already hesitant recovery in the European Union (EU) has faltered. Following growth in the third quarter, real GDP stagnated over the course of the following quarter. Domestic demand remained slack and investment activity was still very modest. At the start of the year 2010, anxiety about the medium-term consequences of the extremely expansive economic policy came to the fore, as the rescue and support measures initiated by governments caused the government debt of a number of EU member states to swell strongly. The necessary consolidation measures to be expected are unlikely to be conducive to the ongoing recovery. Consequently, the consensus forecast in 2010 in the EU 27 for gross domestic product growth is only a moderate 0.9 %.

As the economic situation continued to be fragile, the uptrend in the German economy remained unsteady throughout. The upswing has been carried to date by improved exports and an increase in warehouse stock levels. By contrast, domestic demand made virtually no contribution at all. Owing to the good order intake at the start of the year, the sentiment of companies is, however, basically confident at present, which has had the effect of raising capacity utilization. The Project Group is expecting gross domestic product to grow by 1.5 % in 2010.